AUBURN OFFENSE VS. ALABAMA DEFENSE:

Auburn QB Brandon Cox threw four interceptions in last week's lousy performance against Georgia. Cox is hobbled with injuries to his ankle and both knees. Alabama will try its hardest to make it a long day for Cox. Getting to the quarterback becomes even more important when the quarterback is injured. If the Tide can harass Cox, they might be able to force more turnovers - something Alabama's defense is great at. Cox is protected by an experienced, yet underachieving offensive line that has allowed 28 sacks this year. 'Bama has sacked the quarterback only ten times. This is a matchup of bad pass protection and a bad pass rush. Not sure where the advantage is there.

Of course Cox won't have to do everything by himself. He'll hand it off to Kenny Irons ... and Brad Lester ... and Ben Tate. Irons will be the most important player in the game when Auburn has the ball. Alabama is decent against the run, yielding 117.2 yards per game. 'Bama is much better against the pass, so the Tide will have to hope to limit the Auburn ground attack and put the game in Cox's hands. Therefore, Auburn needs to establish the run early and often. If the Tigers can't find success on the ground, Alabama should win. The Alabama defensive line is average, and the Tide have played nine different linebackers this year. Juwan Simpson leads the way with 70 tackles. He is a playmaker. Simpson has forced two fumbles and has an interception.

The Auburn passing game relies heavily on the production of wide receiver Courtney Taylor. What a talented player he is. Taylor has caught 48 passes for 634 yards. Rodgeriqus Smith is a big-play threat as well. One thing that makes Auburn's passing game dangerous is the ability of the running backs to catch balls out of the backfield. Watch out for the talented trio to catch do that tomorrow. The problem is that it's tough to throw on Alabama. The Crimson Tide allows only 172.8 passing yards per contest. That's remarkable for a team with just ten sacks. The secondary is good, but dealing with some injury problems. That's a big edge for the Tigers. Watch out for cornerback Simeon Castille. The junior is a turnover magnet. He has snagged five interceptions so far this season. With the uncertain health of Cox, I give the advantage to Alabama's pass defense.

Speaking of turnovers, that might ultimately decide this game. Auburn's loss last week was highlighted by Cox's four interceptions. This week, he'll face an Alabama team that is second in the SEC and 10th in the nation in turnover margin per game (+1). Alabama has forced 24 turnovers in 11 games thus far. If Auburn is going to have success on the Alabama defense, running the ball will be important, and holding onto the ball will be more important. One interesting thing to note: Alabama's defense has gotten off to miserable starts in the past two games (both losses). Nobody can seem to figure it out. The good news is Auburn is a good second half team and a typically slow-starting team. Auburn might have to make a statement on the first few possessions. There's a lot of talent on the Auburn offense, but this is a unit that scores 25.7 points per game. Not great. Not terrible. That's the type of performance I expect offensively from Auburn against the Tide.

ALABAMA OFFENSE VS. AUBURN DEFENSE:

I love watching the Auburn defense. They are fast and fun. The 'Bama fans seem encouraged by the progress of quarterback John Parker Wilson. Wilson needs just 213 yards to break Brodie Croyle's single-season record. Wilson has done his job without WR Tyrone Prothro, who was back at practice this week but isn't expected to play. Don't worry, DJ Hall has picked up the slack with seven games of 100 yards or more. He leads the team with 999 yards and forms a nice one-two punch with receiver Keith Brown. However, Brown is hurt. His status is in question. Wilson and Alabama need him in the lineup against an Auburn defense that allows just 164.4 yards per game in the air. This Auburn defense isn't the type that relies on turnovers. It just doesn't allow the opponent yards or points. Auburn is third in the SEC in scoring defense. CB David Irons is known mostly as the brother of Kenny Irons, but he is a solid cornerback too.

The success of the Auburn defense starts up front with DE Quentin Groves. Groves is third in the SEC with 7.5 sacks. The interior of the defensive line is deep and talented too. So the Alabama offensive line will have a challenge in this year's Iron Bowl. Alabama has allowed 24 sacks, ninth most in the conference. LSU sacked Wilson four times last week. This is where Auburn must seize control the game. There is no excuse for failing to pressure Wilson. Auburn has more talent and much more experience up front than Alabama.

Alabama's offense is based on running the ball and controlling the clock. The Crimson Tide is the best in the conference and the eighth best team in the nation in time of possession. RB Kenneth Darby has carried 184 time this year. His yards per carry is an unspectacular 4.2, but still, he is a solid contributor. The fans I spoke with this week seem to love the backup, Jimmy Johns. His yards per carry is better than Darby's. Both will contribute tomorrow. Also, keep an eye on 'Bama's talented fullback, Le'Ron McClain. Auburn has a deep unit of linebackers that includes the freshman Tray Blackmon and the experienced guys, Will Herring and Karibi Dede. This is what Dede was quoted as saying in The Huntsville Times: "The main thing for us is to contain Darby. He's one of those guys that, for some reason or another, is hard to tackle."

I think the health of Keith Brown is a major story. If he plays, how effective can he be? If Brown is not in the lineup, then Auburn should consider double and triple-teaming DJ Hall. It will be interesting to see what Wilson will do if his two favorite targets are being taken out of the game. Luckily, Darby is a great option to catch passes as well. Alabama's best bet against Auburn will be to play a power game. I remember Auburn Coach Tommy Tuberville explaining why Arkansas RB Darren McFadden had his way with the Tigers defense. He said McFadden and Arkansas were just too physical for Auburn. Auburn's defense is better when it is using its speed. The best bet for Alabama is to avoid the sidelines and edges and focus on dominating the middle of the field. Clearly, Auburn's defense is better than Alabama's offense, but the Tigers are prone to lazy stretches and mental lapses during which they give up big plays. Take away the big plays, and Auburn should be able to limit the scoring of the Tide.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Great contrast of styles here. Auburn features a solid and disciplined special teams unit. The Tigers boast the second best kickoff return unit in the country, mostly because their kicker boots balls out of the endzone regularly. Punter Kody Bliss is very good, and field goal kicker John Vaughn is among the nation's elite.

Alabama is not going to wow you with consistency, but it will make big plays from time to time. Alabama has blocked three punts so far this year and scored one special teams touchdown. A lot of that production has come against weaker opponents. The return games are average. Placekicker Jaime Christensen was 0-2 last weekend, but he was 11-13 before that. Punter P.J. Fitzgerald averages just 37.9 yards per punt.

Auburn is much more impressive on special teams, but Alabama can surprise you with a big play here or there.

PREDICTION:

A few things make this game an upset waiting to happen. First of all, Brandon Cox is not 100%. Also, Alabama is 6-1 at home this season. Now consider that Auburn has not blown out one good team this year. That means the score should be close. And finally, it's the Iron Bowl. The rest of the season doesn't matter.

To summarize, Alabama needs to stop the run and make this game about Brandon Cox. This question then becomes: Which unit is worse ... Auburn's offensive line or Alabama's defensive line? The answer to that question (and the turnover battle) could determine our winner.

I like Alabama in this game to make a few big plays on defense and win a sloppy, low-scoring game. Fear the Thumb all you want, but the Tide is turning.

Auburn 13
Alabama 14