The BCS... So Confusing
The SEC's best chance of being represented in the BCS title game is clearly Florida. How realistic are UF's chances?
This actually wasn't a bad week for the Gators, even though a narrow victory over Vanderbilt will hurt them in the polls. But in the BCS standings, they are in fourth place behind Ohio State, Michigan, and Louisville in that order.
That's the way it should be, considering the three teams ahead of the Gators are undefeated. However, Ohio State and Michigan both struggled with easy opponents this weekend. OSU beat Illinois, a 2-8 team, 17-10. Michigan beat Ball State, a 3-7 team, 34-26. Louisville is the hot team right now after a 44-34 win over previously unbeaten West Virginia.
The Gators were hurt by South Carolina, this upcoming Saturday's opponent, losing to Arkansas. UF needs South Carolina and Florida State to win as often as possible as this season winds down.
So we know that Ohio State and Michigan play each other. That's obviously great news for UF. Louisville plays at Rutgers this Thursday. If Louisville wins that, you'd have to think the Cardinals will win out and have a good chance of playing for the National Championship.
The Michigan-Ohio State winner is almost certainly guaranteed a spot in the title game.
So what does UF need?
First of all, Louisville must lose on Thursday. If that doesn't happen, maybe Pittsburgh or South Florida can knock off the Cardinals. But don't bet on that. If Louisville loses to Rutgers, then all of a sudden the Scarlet Knights are still undefeated and they will have knocked off the third best team in the country, but they might be too far back in the BCS Standings to make a difference now (13th). And that's not fair for Rutgers, but that's the way it goes. Don't forget Rutgers still has West Virginia on the schedule in addition to Louisville. If Rutgers wins both games, then they may be in the picture.
UF could also use a different opponent than Arkansas in the SEC Championship game. Currently, Auburn would be a much better opponent to beat. Arkansas is 11th in the BCS, 11th in the Harris Poll, and 11th in the Coaches Poll. Clearly, Arkansas deserves better, but again, that's the way it goes. Auburn, currently second in the SEC West, is sixth in the BCS, and fifth in both the Harris and Coaches polls. So if Auburn can sneak into the SEC title game, that could be better for Florida. It would give the Gators a chance to beat the only team they lost to. Even if it is Arkansas representing the West, that wouldn't be so bad. Arkansas still plays Tennessee and LSU. If the Hogs win both of those games, then they will be much higher in the polls and the BCS when they play UF. Still, Auburn would be better.
The WORST case scenario for Florida would be Arkansas losing one more game and still going to the SEC Championship because of the tie breaker with Auburn.
If Auburn gets into the title game and beats Florida, then the Tigers might get a chance to play for a National Championship. Auburn is already ahead of UF in all three polls, but not the BCS.
Finally, UF needs to win out. But you didn't need me to tell you that.
Strength of schedule will help UF if the Gators can manage to win the SEC. The Gators have had a great year, but at this point, they cannot afford to squeak by a team that they should blow out. The Gators might have to start running up the score whenever possible. The Harris Poll and Coaches Poll make up 2/3 of the BCS standings, so UF (ranked sixth in each) needs to start making up ground.
With all the talk about a playoff being necessary, the SEC still has a chance to make it to the big game. It will be either Ohio State or Michigan, that's practically a certainty. The favorites for the other spot are: an undefeated Louisville; a one-loss SEC school that is NOT Arkansas; Texas, provided the Longhorns win out; and the loser of Michigan-Ohio State.
I can't decide if this is fun or stressful.
Comments
I think you did a fairly good job of summing up the BCS picture. But as a Arkansas fan I am curious about some of your logic. It seems awlful early to be narrowing it down to only UF, with so many of the top 10 BCS teams still yet to play each other.I realize that it is very unlikely that Auburn and Florida will lose again. But between Notre Dame, USC and Cal at the most only one of those teams will end with only one loss. After watching the West Virginia- Louisville game, I can't imagine either of thse teams winning out with the pitiful defense that both have, most likely those two and Rutgers will beat each other up now that they are into the meat of their schedule. If Texas wins out and beats Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship game then their only claim to fame is losing to Ohio St. As for Michigan as good as their defense is suppose to be, Indiana will put up more points than Ball State. They have had way to many close calls to stick in there if Ohio State wins their matchup. With Arkansas winning out over Tennessee, and LSU, and a win over Florida in the SEC Championship game will certainly push them to at least 4th in the BCS. Would the Arkansas strength of schedule be enough to push them past a one loss Texas or USC? The most likely scenario in that instance is Arkansas at 3 behind a one loss USC and a undefeated Ohio State. Jumping Auburn by the benefit of beating them but staying behind USC because we lost to them.If Cal beats USC that would push them there instead and you would have one loss Texas,Cal,Auburn,and Arkansas trying to keep Michigan and the Big East at bay. How will the computers see it? I don't know but if Arkansas does win out with wins against EVERY GOOD SEC team, having wins over Tennessee, as well as top five Auburn and Florida the computers are surely going to push them towards the front.
Posted by: Chuck Allen | November 6, 2006 08:48 PM
Chuck,
Great comment, but I have to point out something. I did not say that UF is the only hope for the SEC. I was simply saying UF is the best hope right now for the SEC. Arkansas is low in the polls and BCS. That's not fair to the Razorbacks, but it might be too much ground to make up if they do win out and Texas or USC or West Virginia or another one-loss team does too. UF has the best chance because the Gators are the highest in the BCS at the moment, and their strength of schedule will give them a boost over non-SEC teams with one loss.
I don't see West Virginia or Louisville losing again this year. Louisville is probably a better defensive team than what we saw on Thursday. So is West Virginia. Remember the Mountaineers were hurt by a turnover deep in their territory and a punt returned for a TD. Plus, who is going to beat them? Rutgers has a chance, but I think the Scarlet Knights are a step behind.
Anyway, I appreciate the comment. You made some great points. I think the main thing to take away from this is that this process is so unpredictable and in a few weeks the standings could look completely different. Hopefully the voters start giving Arkansas some respect and the Razorbacks can climb up in the polls.
Adam
Posted by: Adam Aizer | November 7, 2006 11:13 AM