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This Week's SEC Predictions

I needed a good week to get my confidence back after a 3-4 performance picking games two weeks ago. I rebounded by going 4-1 last week. I underestimated Georgia.

So here are this week's predictions, excluding the Iron Bowl.


Tennessee at Vanderbilt:

"They're a better team when Erik Ainge is running the show. He gives them that passing game that sets up their running game." - Vanderbilt Head Coach Bobby Johnson.

Ainge is probable for Saturday's game. Vanderbilt is no longer bowl eligible, so the Commodores will treat this game as their Bowl Game.

Key to the game for Tennessee: LaMarcus Coker needs another solid outing and he needs more carries. He is likely to be the starting RB this game, and it's tough to predict how well Ainge will play. So Coker needs to take pressure off of his quarterback.

Key to the game for Vanderbilt: Put pressure on the Tennessee offensive line. The O-line admitted to being dominated by Arkansas last week. The unit allowed four sacks.

Prediction: Vanderbilt is better than its 4-7 record. In a close game, Tennessee pulls it out by a touchdown.


Western Carolina at Florida:

"I don't worry about that. I haven't listened to many discussions. It's hard to imagine that Florida won't be in that game." - UF Head Coach Urban Meyer on the BCS Championship game.

It seemed hard to imagine that until Sunday's BCS standings came out. No matter how badly UF beats up on Western Carolina, it won't help the Gators climb the rankings unless USC loses.

Key to the game for Western Carolina: Don't be afraid to kick field goals. Florida DE Jarvis Moss will sit this game out for discipline problems. He blocked two kicks last week. Western Carolina's kicker just exhaled.

Key to the game for Florida: Get out of this game without more injuries. LBs Brandon Siler and Earl Everett are hurting. They are two of the most important players on the team. Urban Meyer will have decisions to make on when to play the backups and when to stop running up the score.

Prediction: Uh, Florida.


Middle Tennessee at South Carolina:

"I think they're one game away from winning their conference championship. It'll be a difficult game for us, but I'm looking forward to seeing if we can get a victory for the guys at home." - South Carolina Head Coach Steve Spurrier

The Blue Raiders have actually done very well against the weaker competition (6-0 in the Sun Belt Conference), but Louisville, Oklahoma, and Maryland have had their way with Middle Tennessee. South Carolina's offense isn't good enough to blow most teams out.

Key to the game for Middle Tennessee: Stop the passing game. USC has only the eighth best rushing attack in the SEC, and while the Gamecocks might get dependable production out of the backfield, most of the big plays occur in the passing game. Let USC run, because it's Rice and McKinley that will kill you.

Key to the game for South Carolina: Protect the quarterback. Last week USC allowed no sacks and had a great offensive day. This week they go against a team that has recorded 28 sacks.

Prediction: South Carolina by 16.

Louisiana-Monroe at Kentucky:

"It's nice to finally be in the mix in the upper echelon in the SEC east. We're currently second. It's nice to get Kentucky into that position." - Kentucky Head Coach Rich Brooks

Kentucky seems to be headed for its seventh win of the year. Nicely done, Coach Brooks. Louisiana-Monroe enters the game just 2-7 this season.

Key to the game for Louisiana-Monroe: Don't turn it over. Kentucky's defense allows more yards than almost any other team in the country. Teams can move the ball all day on the Wildcats, but Kentucky has a knack for creating turnovers. Kentucky has the fourth best turnover margin in the country.

Key to the game for Kentucky: The Little man. Rafael Little is back carrying the ball, and the Kentucky offensive line is improving. Though quarterback Andre' Woodson was the story last week, the running game is on the rise.

Prediction: Kentucky wins. I doubt they'll be tearing down the goalpost after this one.


Arkansas at Mississippi State:

"We're expecting Arkansas to play their best game. I'm expecting us to play our best game too. They embarrassed us last year. I'm sure they're looking forward to this game. They probably have their ring polished out and ready to go. They're gonna have to earn it. It's our last home game here and our kids are ready to play." - MSU Head Coach Sylvester Croom

It seems like you can write the recap of an Arkansas game before it happens now. What will Darren McFadden do to amaze us this week? I like what Croom said, though. I expect a gutsy performance from the Bulldogs.

Key to the game for Arkansas: Mix it up a little. Arkansas did a lot of things right against Tennessee last week, but one Volunteer defender said the Razorbacks basically ran about five plays. With one of the nation's best defenses (LSU) coming up next week, the Razorbacks might have to start becoming more creative.

Key to the game for Mississippi State: A good start. Who knows? Maybe Arkansas will be too cocky heading into Starkville. The Bulldogs' best chance is getting some points early and keeping the crowd in the game.

Prediction:
The Razorbacks know they need to win impressively every week to keep gaining respect. Arkansas wins by 14.


Ole Miss at LSU:

"Ole Miss is much improved than they were at the beginning of the year. They play Alabama and Auburn, with the exception of Arkansas. Everybody's tough on their schedule. They're a very talented three win team." - LSU Head Coach Les Miles.

LSU has been awesome at home. Its only losses have been narrow defeats on the road. I do agree that Ole Miss is much more talented than most teams with three wins.

Key to the game for Ole Miss: Be patient on offense. It will be tough to get big plays out of the passing game against a great LSU secondary. Factor in Ole Miss being last in the SEC in passing, and the formula for victory is a controlled ground game that tries to keep the LSU offense off the field.

Key to the game for LSU: A big game against Arkansas next week cannot be on LSU's mind. Take care of business. If Arkansas wins earlier in the day, then the SEC West will be decided, so maybe that problem will take care of itself. Last week against Alabama, some LSU players said they had trouble getting emotionally into the game. That cannot happen again.

Prediction: LSU easily over Ole Miss.

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